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Chaos Theory and Card Games for Neocons
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The great minds behind the trample of Iraq are looking for the next big diversion, and it could be the stomping of Syria. We can't waste time thinking about where we have been, either 20 years ago or yesterday, places like Kabul or Baghdad, such a mess, just not photogenic or fun anymore. It's on to a new scene, the next eye-grabbing trailer. It's all about entertainment anyway. The great minds are constantly working for us the viewer, to keep us munching the popcorn and shushing the guys sitting next to us so we can enjoy the movie. From the well-staged briefings in the new CENTCOM theater, to the excited and on-the-team reporters, pleasantly rumpled and doe-eyed from another night in bed with the troops, to the deck of cards we are now shuffling with the Iraqi 55 most wanted, it's all about fun. Please pay no attention to the ragged civilians or our tattered Constitution ailing in the background. Explaining the recent hustle and hubris in today's U.S. foreign policy can be difficult. We might look to chaos theory - popularly understood as a butterfly flapping its wings in say.Washington, affecting in unknown ways, say .the societal and governmental systems in the Arab world. In an introduction to basic chaos theory, one would probably review the four classes of dynamic systems. Class I behavior converges on "zero" or death, Class II behavior leads to history building upon itself, Class III is unpredictable randomness, and Class IV is a mixture of the first two "ordered" classes with Class III chaos such that behavior is ordered on the "edge of chaos." Class IV systems are often seen as the natural state of adaptive complex systems, whether biological or organizational. Neocon political thought - to the extent that it constitutes anything at all beyond cleverly cloaked power-mad imperialism under neocon rule - fancies itself to be actually applying some form of chaos theory. The idea of the reverse domino effect (Iraq becomes a self-ruling peaceful democracy in a single country, then the neighbors follow) is a part of this mantra. Unfortunately, the neocons, not being mathematicians or otherwise having any interest in bottom line truth, have confused the idea of inflicting chaos with their delicate butterfly wings in Washington with chaos theory as a mechanism of global development. The four classes of dynamic behavior are revealing. Classes I and II are the ordered systems. Class I is governed by a "unifying principle or attractor" or doomsday scenario. Notable characteristics of the Class I include "progressive marginalization; contextually determined behaviour and absence of choice; .traditional values (of ancestors) perceived as quaint and of little current relevance. Possibly the black hole of individual or collective self-righteousness." Psychologically, Class I is sometimes associated with the elderly, those near death, and Class I dynamic systems are always terminal. Class II is the second order-based system, and it is associated with ".established patterns of order . Patterns of rights, obligations and constraints. Top-down advocacy/imposition of behavioural guidelines.Organized liberty. Emphasis on collective consensus. Time-tested cultural, parental (family) values." Class II is sometimes psychologically associated with maturity and adulthood. Class III is seen in "Chaotic behavioural patterns. Impermanence of social structures. Unconstrained freedom of choice. Emphasis on individualism. Postmodernist value relativism." It is psychologically linked with adolescence, youth and immaturity. Class IV is "Emergent behavioural patterns of higher orders of complexity. Surprise. Innovation. Higher orders of consensus. Grounding of new values." It is associated with "social innovation and the emergence of new patterns of relationship (partnerships, coalitions, teams, groups, etc) but especially that which ensures renewal (including reproduction)." The neocon worldview is sometimes proposed as Class IV style innovation, with a risk-embracing strategy for changing the world, breaking a few eggs to make one of Mr. Perle's soufflés, as it were. Their strategy is to destroy the current state and society in the Middle East, except for Israel, and in the new undergrowth, like the scrub trees that replace the Ponderosa after a western forest fire, they hope to find something they like. An interesting problem with Class I, II and III dynamic systems is that in them, "strategic planning is not possible." Chaotic new inputs are not systemically recognized or incorporated by the ordered classes, and in the case of Class III, order simply does not exist with true chaos. Now, careful reading of the class descriptions might lead you to think that the Class III adolescent approach is matched up with neoconservativism. If you are very astute, you will notice that the Class I actually more closely characterizes the neocon philosophy and practice. This brings us to the problem. Whether Class I or Class III, strategy and strategic planning is impossible. Yet, we are assured that the great minds are indeed implementing a strategy, and we must only trust in it to be politically correct and live prosperously and at peace. Given this insistence on the part of the neocon establishment, we must conclude that, in fact, the neocons are laboring selflessly for the rest of us under a false premise. They believe they are working strategically towards a Class IV order that maximizes "good" chaos, but in fact are deliriously lost with one foot in a Class III Rousseau-esque landscape of impermanence of social structures and unconstrained freedom of choice, and the other in an open grave. Well - one thing should be clear. The label of "paleo" conservative makes sense when coming from these intellectual juveniles with old men's bodies. It must indeed appear to them that the classic liberal viewpoints are passé, and that they, safe in their taxpayer- or trust-funded and politically connected livelihoods, have discovered an easy alternative to their "parent's" presumption that improvements in the human condition are gained through hard work and a gracious enduring appreciation for our fellow men and women as brothers and sisters. Thank God these neo-cons are changelings, and do not spring from conservatism, but instead are the ugly offspring of an abnormal and unsatisfying mating of imperial ideologues Woodrow Wilson, Scoop Jackson and Leon Trotsky. Fortunately for the rest of us, the neocon embrace of Class I and Class III behavioral models guarantee the philosophy and its virulent carriers a wild ride ending in certain death. The question is how much chaos and collective self-righteousness can we all take before imperial neo-conservativism totally disintegrates? But genealogy and complicated theories are so boring. We started out looking for a diversion. While we wait to attack Syria, how about a nice card game for the neocons? I am not completely sure of the rules for the 55 cards in the "let's go after the Iraqi regime evil-doers" game, so I can't recommend it. I understand poker is deadly for the stubborn and the arrogant, so that's out. Let's see, we want a game with simple rules, entertaining to watch and play, has a curious moralistic bent, relies on winner-take-all and involves violence and destruction.. Hmmmm. I've got it - Egyptian ratscrew! Even though it doesn't have a thing to do with Middle Eastern countries or rats or even loveless copulation.. somehow I think the neocons will pick it up very quickly!
Karen Kwiatkowski [send
her mail] is a recently retired USAF lieutenant colonel, who spent her
final four and a half years in uniform working at the Pentagon. She now
lives with her freedom-loving family in the Shenandoah Valley. Copyright © 2003 LewRockwell.com
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April 17,
2003
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